Is AI set to surpass human intelligence within the next year? Musk makes bold forecast
During a conversation at X spaces with investment fund CEO Nicolai Tangen, Tesla's Elon Musk weighed in on the timeline for artificial general intelligence to outpace human abilities. When asked, Musk predicted this will likely occur by next year or by 2026 - doubling down on an earlier estimate of AGI emerging by 2029.
Superintelligence refers to capabilities beyond any single human across all domains of thinking. Musk's outlook stems from his work advancing AI safety through X, founded last year as a competitor to OpenAI. A major project is Grok, an AI chatbot hoped to be trained by May pending chip availability.
Training the current Grok model requires an estimated 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs. Meanwhile, future versions like Grok 3 will demand over 100,000 such chips. However, Musk noted reliable energy sources may become the limiting factor within 1-2 years as systems grow increasingly powerful.
His comments offer insight into both progress and challenges surrounding the development of beneficial artificial general intelligence, whether reality aligns with the CEO's forecast of human-level AGI by 2026. Only continued research will determine the accuracy of his prediction.